Real
Estate Optimism
|
Director, Washington
Center for Real Estate Research
Washington State
University
Across the board real estate
market experts are fairly optimistic about the opening months of 2003,
according to the Washington Real Estate Confidence Index prepared at year-end
by the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at Washington State
University. Panels of experts share
their experiences in recent months, and their expectations for the future with
Center staff on a regular basis. These
individuals maintain membership in real estate specialty groups, and typically
have advanced training in their specialty leading to a designation. The
organizations in which the panelists hold membership are the co-sponsors of
this research.[1] For the last two years WCRER has conducted this study
every six months, but beginning with the current index, the measure is being
prepared quarterly.
Residential real estate and
mortgage lending were the economic leaders in 2002, not just in Washington but
around the country, primarily because mortgage rates had fallen to their lowest
levels in a generation. While the
experts do not expect that interest rates will continue to fall, the general
expectation is that residential real estate market conditions will remain
strong, with overall economic activity increases providing market strength that
interest rates alone can no longer provide.
Commercial real estate, which
has been far weaker in recent months than its residential counterpart, is
expected to begin the long road to recovery, but is expected to remain weaker
than home sales in early 2003. This
market segment is closely tied to unemployment rates. While all market segments
are expected to be in positive territory early in the year, the residential
brokerage and property management businesses are expected to be especially
strong, according to the experts who deal in those markets every day. Individuals who deal primarily in raw land were
least optimistic about activity levels during the January to March period, a
time when real estate market activity is generally fairly slow.
Experts in the real estate
markets in Northwest Washington and on the Olympic Peninsula were especially
upbeat while their counterparts in the Central Puget Sound (greater Seattle)
were the least optimistic. Except for
the Central Puget Sound region, which had the weakest economy in the state
during 2002, all regions are less confident about the beginning of 2003 then
they were about the closing months of 2002.
Statistics on Washington’s housing market and other
useful information are available on WCRER’s Web site: www.cbe.wsu.edu/~wcrer.
For other information on real estate markets around the State of Washington, or
general information about the real estate industry in the state (excluding
legal questions), readers can reach the WCRER at 1-800-835-9683.
January, 2003
[1]The cosponsor organizations are the Washington Chapters
of: CCIM Institute, Society of Industrial and Office Realtors, Commercial Brokers
Association, National Association of Industrial and Office Properties,
Commercial Real Estate Women, Building Owners and Managers Association,
Institute of Real Estate Management, Realtors Land Institute, Building Industry
Association, Council of Real Estate Brokerage Managers, Council of Residential
Specialists, Mortgage Bankers Association, Association of Mortgage Brokers