Long
Term Market Trends
|
Director, Washington
Center for Real Estate Research
Washington State
University
The Census is conducted every
10 years, and becomes the benchmark analytical tool for a decade. Now, three years after Americans completed
their surveys, detailed results on topics of interest to researchers,
businesses, and individuals are slowly being released. One such report, Demographic Trends in the
20th Century was release late last year.
Unfortunately, housing has
not received equal treatment throughout the Century, and some series do not
begin until 1950 or 1960, but the profiles of where and how Americans live, and
how those domiciles have changed over the decades is compelling.
Home ownership has long been
a measure of financial (and social) well being. During the first part of the 20th Century ownership
rates for homes were very stable, with somewhere 45.6 and 47.8 percent of
households owning their own homes. In
the aftermath of the Great Depression, ownership rates dropped to their lowest
levels during the Century in 1940, when only 43.6 percent of households lived
in a home they owned. The GI bill and
other programs designed to boost home ownership were implemented in the late
1940s, and by the 1950 Census home ownership had surged to the point that 55
percent of households owned their homes.
Then years later that figure stood at 61.9 percent, and has generally
continued to rise, reaching 66.2 percent in Census 2000. More recent data from
a much smaller sample indicates that at year-end 2002 68.3 percent of homes
were owner-occupied. This data will be
the subject of a future column.
The Census data also clearly
links home ownership with the age of the household. For householders under age 65 the ownership rate rose from 58.3
percent in 1960 to 63.0 percent in both 1980 and 2000 (1990 was somewhat
lower). Meanwhile, 71.9 percent of
seniors owned the homes in 1960s. The
rate declined to 67.5 percent in 1970, and rose with each subsequent Census
reaching 78.1 percent in 2000. Hidden
in the deep recesses of this data, the spread between the ownership rate of
American seniors and the remainder of householders has never been greater,
despite the high levels of ownership generally reported.
The final major analysis of
the housing data relates to size of household.
In 1940 single persons were almost as likely as larger households to own
their residence (39.4 and 43.9 percent respectively). By 1980 this gap had widened significantly, as 43.5 percent of
single individuals and 70.6 percent of larger households were home owners. Of course, a significant element in this
change was the rise in the number of single individuals living alone – elderly
householders maintaining their independence and young people leaving the family
home and living independently. In
recent years increased numbers of single persons have purchased homes compared
to earlier eras where most single-persons owners inherited the homes from their
parents or spouse. The nature of the
housing market is hiding in the details of statistics like these.
WCRER will continue to
monitor reports based on the Census for additional insights, especially as they
relate to the State of Washington.
Statistics on Washington’s
housing market and other useful information are available on WCRER’s Web site:
www.cbe.wsu.edu/~wcrer. For other information on real estate markets around the
State of Washington, or general information about the real estate industry in
the state (excluding legal questions), readers can reach the WCRER at
1-800-835-9683.
February, 2003